Thursday, May 21, 2009

The long shot...

Two teams have booked their place in the semifinals of IPL 2 as of now, Delhi Daredevils & Chennai Superkings.

It seems like there are three teams fighting it out for the other two spots. But the reality as we know is that there are only two teams that stand a real good chance. They are the ones who play this evening, Bangalore Royal Challengers & Deccan Chargers.

The other, Kings Eleven Punjab would be praying hard. The first thing they would do is to sing a nursery rhyme loud, so loud that the gods hear it.

"Rain, rain go away... Come again another day"

For, if the match is rained out today their dreams, however miniscule in percentage would also get washed out. (if it happens the two teams get 1 point each and both get to 15, while Kings would be left behind at 14)

The next thing Kings would be praying for would be a big loss for any one of these two teams.

Here is a sample of how big a loss Kings would be praying for.

Let us first look at Bangalore, currently in the fourth position

In this case Deccan bat first and score 130 in their 20 overs. And Bangalore chasing it, true to its name plays like a test team and scores 60 in reply in their full 20 overs.
Then Punjab and Deccan go to the semis.
Not possible, right ?
Now option 2: Bangalore bat first and score 50 in 15 overs, chasing this Deccan score 51 within 6 overs.

This also seems a distant possibility, so Bangalore are more or less through. Unless some miracle happens and they get plastered by Deccan so badly.

Now let's look at Deccan's chances

Now let us say, Bangalore bat first.

They have to score 253 in their 20 overs and get Deccan out for 50 (in the 20th over)

Then Deccan are eliminated, Punjab advance with Bangalore.

I know what you are saying, IMPOSSIBLE. Right?

Now the other option, Deccan bat first.

They score 40 in 12 overs and Bangalore in return score those runs off in 4 overs.

This is another way of eliminating Deccan.

No way again !!

So effectively, there is no chance other than statistically for Punjab to advance to the semis.

Unless I have missed out on any other combination... Do let me know and I shall stand corrected...

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